Forecast Model — Midterm Pulse 2026

Midterm Pulse2026

The modelThe forecast, how it works, its validation and sources LatestHeadlines, new polls, market swings and what moved PollsGeneric ballot, Senate and House polls MarketsPrediction markets against the model

Races: map and listAll 470 House and Senate races StatesEach state's Senate race and House districts CandidatesEvery 2026 nominee

GeographySeven axes of the American vote, county by county HistorySeat changes and past cycles GlossaryEvery term, in plain words AboutWho builds Midterm Pulse

PlaygroundScenarios, map builder and data lab Stream modeFull-screen scenes for OBS

Data

The model

Forecast How it works Validation Sources

Running 50,000 deterministic simulations…

Midterm Pulse 2026

An independent, open forecast of the 2026 US midterms, told in Spanish: every race, every source, every assumption in the open.

MP-26 v0.4 · updated dailyExperimental model · not a prediction of certainty

Election night Stream mode →

Start

Dashboard Election night About

Forecast

The model Latest Polls Markets

Races

Races: map and list States Candidates

Understand

Geography History Glossary

Tools

Playground Stream mode

DataVote-Scope FEC Census ACS MIT Election Lab Cook · IE · Sabato Polymarket Methodology →

Made in Madrid by Jorge Garcelán · X · LinkedIn · GitHub · jorgegarcelan.com

Not affiliated with any party, campaign or media outlet.

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