Made by Jorge Garcelán

THE PROJECT

Why Midterm Pulse

Midterm Pulse is an independent, open forecast of the 2026 US midterms, written for Spanish-speaking readers and journalists. Every number on the site can be traced: the model's coefficients are public, every race shows its sources, and the expert ratings sit next to the model so you can see where they disagree.

It is not affiliated with any party, campaign or media outlet. The model is experimental: its probability engine is backtested on 2018 and 2022, but treat it as one more signal, not a prediction of certainty.

HOW IT IS BUILT

Data, model and code

• ModelMP-26: 50,000 simulations of all 470 races, built on the Vote-Scope public benchmark and the generic-ballot polling average.
• DataFEC filings, Census ACS, MIT Election Lab and county results, Cook / Inside Elections / Sabato ratings and Polymarket prices.
• CodeNext.js and TypeScript; the forecast is archived daily so every change can be audited.

PATH

Experience

1. 2026Solutions ArchitectMultiverse Computing
2. 2024 –Graduate AI ResearcherUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid
3. 2025Solutions Architect InternAmazon Web Services
4. 2023 – 2024Network & IT Internal Audit InternTelefónica
5. 2023Machine Learning and AI ResearcherData Science and Policy Lab, Georgia Tech
6. Co-founderUniwords

M.Sc. in Applied AI and B.Sc. in Data Science and Engineering at UC3M, with an exchange year at Georgia Tech.

RESEARCH

Selected papers

NLP, gender bias in the media and AI for public policy, including tools that help journalists analyse coverage.

• AVI 2026An AI Tool for Gender Bias Analysis in News Publications
• Interspeech 2025Beyond Conventional Metrics: using Entropic Triangles to Explain Balancing Methods in Acoustic Scene Classification
• womENcourage 2025Analyzing Women's Representation and Gender Bias in AI Media Coverage
• AAAI 2023Generative AI and Discovery of Preferences for Single-Use Plastics Regulations