SENATE
Iowa
- Polls
- D+1.1D 46.4 · R 45.3 · 33 polls, latest Oct 28
- Markets
- 59% RPolymarket · $934.6K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+0.955% chance for D · 80%: R+8.7 to D+10.6
- Census-26
- R+10.679% chance for R · 80%: R+27.4 to D+6.2
They disagree on who leads
KEY RACES · SENATE, HOUSE AND GOVERNORSKEY RACES · SENATE AND HOUSE
The races that matter
The races that can decide control of Congress and several states, each with four readings: the polling average, prediction markets, the MP-26 model (polls and fundamentals) and Census-26 (demographics only, no polls).The races that can decide control of Congress, each with four readings: the polling average, prediction markets, the MP-26 model (polls and fundamentals) and Census-26 (demographics only, no polls).
Chosen by Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato: every Senate race whose average rating stays below lean, and every House race they rate toss-up or tilt. It follows their ratings.
22of 31 races where the readings disagree on who leadsPolls, markets, MP-26 and Census-26
Senate 9 races
SENATE
Kansas
- Polls
- D+2.7D 48.3 · R 45.6 · 17 polls, latest Oct 28
- Markets
- 52% DPolymarket · $967.7K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+0.151% chance for R · 80%: R+9.7 to D+9.5
- Census-26
- R+11.781% chance for R · 80%: R+28.6 to D+5.2
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Maine
- Polls
- D+2.6D 49.2 · R 46.6 · 29 polls, latest Oct 27
- Markets
- 68% DPolymarket · $1.7M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+4.372% chance for D · 80%: R+5.3 to D+14.0
- Census-26
- D+17.290% chance for D · 80%: D+0.3 to D+34.1
SENATE · special
Ohio
- Polls
- D+3.2D 48.0 · R 44.8 · 32 polls, latest Oct 26
- Markets
- 74% DPolymarket · $1.4M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.659% chance for D · 80%: R+8.0 to D+11.2
- Census-26
- R+1.956% chance for R · 80%: R+18.3 to D+14.5
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Texas
- Polls
- D+2.7D 48.7 · R 46.1 · 67 polls, latest Oct 30
- Markets
- 71% DPolymarket · $4M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+2.262% chance for D · 80%: R+7.4 to D+11.8
- Census-26
- R+1.655% chance for R · 80%: R+19.0 to D+15.8
They disagree on who leads
SENATE
Alaska
- Polls
- D+4.7D 49.2 · R 44.5 · 15 polls, latest Oct 16
- Markets
- 74% DPolymarket · $1.3M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.256% chance for D · 80%: R+8.5 to D+10.8
- Census-26
- D+0.953% chance for D · 80%: R+13.2 to D+15.0
SENATE
Michigan
- Polls
- D+4.1D 48.9 · R 44.7 · 54 polls, latest Oct 29
- Markets
- 82% DPolymarket · $3.1M traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+5.376% chance for D · 80%: R+4.3 to D+14.9
- Census-26
- D+7.271% chance for D · 80%: R+9.7 to D+24.1
SENATE
Nebraska
- Polls
- R+2.7I 45.2 · R 47.9 · 13 polls, latest Oct 29
- Markets
- 75% RPolymarket · $1.2M traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+5.275% chance for R · 80%: R+14.8 to I+4.5
- Census-26
- R+18.792% chance for R · 80%: R+35.5 to R+1.9
SENATE
South Carolina
- Polls
- R+1.7D 45.1 · R 46.7 · 14 polls, latest Oct 29
- Markets
- 75% RPolymarket · $848.3K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+3.668% chance for R · 80%: R+13.2 to D+6.0
- Census-26
- R+10.278% chance for R · 80%: R+27.1 to D+6.7
House 22 races
HOUSE
Colorado 5th District
- Polls
- R+1.7D 43.2 · R 44.9 · 3 polls, latest Oct 20
- Markets
- 57% RPolymarket · $32.8K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+1.658% chance for R · 80%: R+11.2 to D+8.0
- Census-26
- R+5.068% chance for R · 80%: R+18.9 to D+8.9
HOUSE
Florida 22nd District
- Polls
- R+0.8D 47.6 · R 48.4 · 2 polls, latest Aug 31 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 75% DPolymarket · $37.5K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+2.060% chance for D · 80%: R+7.6 to D+11.6
- Census-26
- R+5.266% chance for R · 80%: R+21.3 to D+10.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Kentucky 6th District
- Polls
- D+1.8D 44.3 · R 42.5 · 8 polls, latest Oct 20
- Markets
- 55% DPolymarket · $67.2K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+2.563% chance for R · 80%: R+12.1 to D+7.2
- Census-26
- R+14.891% chance for R · 80%: R+28.7 to R+0.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 4th District
- Polls
- R+3.0D 44.1 · R 47.1 · 3 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 62% DPolymarket · $22K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+0.653% chance for R · 80%: R+10.2 to D+9.0
- Census-26
- R+9.681% chance for R · 80%: R+23.6 to D+4.4
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 7th District
- Polls
- D+7.7D 52.8 · R 45.1 · 3 polls, latest Oct 14
- Markets
- 80% DPolymarket · $44.7K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.179% chance for D · 80%: R+3.5 to D+15.7
- Census-26
- D+4.566% chance for D · 80%: R+9.4 to D+18.4
HOUSE
Montana 1st District
- Polls
- D+2.5D 46.7 · R 44.1 · 9 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 59% DPolymarket · $95.4K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.558% chance for D · 80%: R+8.1 to D+11.1
- Census-26
- R+0.953% chance for R · 80%: R+15.0 to D+13.2
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
New York 17th District
- Polls
- R+0.6D 46.9 · R 47.5 · 5 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 64% DPolymarket · $59.2K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+4.070% chance for D · 80%: R+5.7 to D+13.6
- Census-26
- D+4.867% chance for D · 80%: R+9.1 to D+18.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Pennsylvania 1st District
- Polls
- R+1.4D 45.7 · R 47.1 · 6 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 56% DPolymarket · $73.1K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+0.553% chance for D · 80%: R+9.1 to D+10.1
- Census-26
- R+0.351% chance for R · 80%: R+14.4 to D+13.8
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Texas 35th District
- Polls
- R+0.3D 47.9 · R 48.1 · 4 polls, latest Oct 19
- Markets
- 73% DPolymarket · $47.5K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.055% chance for D · 80%: R+8.6 to D+10.6
- Census-26
- D+3.962% chance for D · 80%: R+12.5 to D+20.3
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Florida 14th District
- Polls
- D+5.0D 48.0 · R 42.9 · 2 polls, latest Oct 14 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 78% DPolymarket · $84.5K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.279% chance for D · 80%: R+3.5 to D+15.8
- Census-26
- R+0.451% chance for R · 80%: R+14.5 to D+13.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Michigan 10th District
- Polls
- R+5.0D 42.0 · R 47.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 23 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 76% DPolymarket · $14.3K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.759% chance for D · 80%: R+7.9 to D+11.3
- Census-26
- D+5.770% chance for D · 80%: R+8.2 to D+19.6
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Ohio 7th District
- Polls
- D+0.7D 44.3 · R 43.6 · 7 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 87% DPolymarket · $91.5K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+2.362% chance for R · 80%: R+11.9 to D+7.3
- Census-26
- R+8.274% chance for R · 80%: R+24.3 to D+7.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Virginia 1st District
- Polls
- R+1.6D 46.4 · R 48.0 · 4 polls, latest Oct 25
- Markets
- 65% DPolymarket · $91.8K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+0.552% chance for R · 80%: R+10.1 to D+9.2
- Census-26
- R+5.570% chance for R · 80%: R+19.3 to D+8.3
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
California 22nd District
- Polls
- D+10.0D 54.0 · R 44.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 28 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 93% DPolymarket · $28.7K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.781% chance for D · 80%: R+2.9 to D+16.3
- Census-26
- D+13.686% chance for D · 80%: R+2.5 to D+29.7
HOUSE
Iowa 2nd District
- Polls
- D+3.0D 50.0 · R 47.0 · 2 polls, latest Oct 14 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 73% DPolymarket · $24.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+2.463% chance for D · 80%: R+7.2 to D+12.0
- Census-26
- R+15.492% chance for R · 80%: R+29.3 to R+1.5
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Alabama 2nd District
- Polls
- R+2.0D 46.0 · R 48.0 · 4 polls, latest Oct 25
- Markets
- 56% RPolymarket · $136K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+1.256% chance for D · 80%: R+8.4 to D+10.8
- Census-26
- R+5.467% chance for R · 80%: R+21.4 to D+10.6
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
North Carolina 1st District
- Polls
- D+1.5D 45.1 · R 43.6 · 6 polls, latest Oct 23
- Markets
- 83% DPolymarket · $45.4K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+3.970% chance for D · 80%: R+5.7 to D+13.5
- Census-26
- R+17.992% chance for R · 80%: R+34.1 to R+1.7
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Ohio 9th District
- Polls
- D+1.1D 46.9 · R 45.7 · 2 polls, latest Oct 23 · few or old polls
- Markets
- 82% DPolymarket · $22.9K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.480% chance for D · 80%: R+3.2 to D+16.0
- Census-26
- R+1.153% chance for R · 80%: R+17.1 to D+14.9
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
South Carolina 1st District
- Polls
- R+2.0D 44.2 · R 46.2 · 5 polls, latest Oct 22
- Markets
- 51% DPolymarket · $95.6K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+1.055% chance for R · 80%: R+10.6 to D+8.6
- Census-26
- R+6.372% chance for R · 80%: R+20.2 to D+7.6
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Texas 15th District
- Polls
- D+7.3D 51.1 · R 43.9 · 5 polls, latest Oct 16
- Markets
- 88% DPolymarket · $54.6K traded ↗
- MP-26
- R+5.577% chance for R · 80%: R+15.1 to D+4.1
- Census-26
- D+8.375% chance for D · 80%: R+7.8 to D+24.4
They disagree on who leads
HOUSE
Texas 34th District
- Polls
- D+6.7D 49.6 · R 42.9 · 3 polls, latest Oct 19
- Markets
- 89% DPolymarket · $20.3K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+6.882% chance for D · 80%: R+2.9 to D+16.4
- Census-26
- D+6.068% chance for D · 80%: R+10.2 to D+22.2
HOUSE
Washington 3rd District
- Polls
- R+2.3D 44.5 · R 46.8 · 3 polls, latest Oct 21
- Markets
- 90% DPolymarket · $34K traded ↗
- MP-26
- D+10.592% chance for D · 80%: D+0.9 to D+20.1
- Census-26
- D+2.760% chance for D · 80%: R+11.2 to D+16.6
They disagree on who leads
Governor 2 races
The models forecast Congress only, so these two races show their polling average.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
- DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins53.2%
- RBernadette Wilson44.8%
- RDave Bronson8.0%
- RTreg Taylor9.0%
GOVERNOR
Iowa
- DRob Sand50.5%
- RZach Lahn44.2%
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and, for the Senate, Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), averaged by Midterm Pulse. Models, candidate lists and selection: Midterm Pulse.